# Table 7: Jordà Local Projections — Dynamic Effects

Horizons h=0,...,5. Growth variables (Δlog K/L, ΔTFP, GDP growth) are cumulated. Level variables (Investment/GDP, MPK) are leads.

## A: Reduced Form (Predicted Demographic Inflows → Outcome)

| Outcome | h=0 | h=1 | h=2 | h=3 | h=4 | h=5 |
|---------|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|
| Capital Deepening (cumulative Δlog K/L) | 0.0017 | -0.0036 | -0.0058** | -0.0044 | -0.0000 | -0.0007 |
| Investment/GDP (level at t+h) | -1.0457*** | -0.5338** | 0.1698 | 0.0038 | 0.3559 | 0.2189 |
| TFP Growth (cumulative Δlog TFP) | -0.0065* | 0.0037 | 0.0175** | 0.0277*** | 0.0054 | -0.0156* |
| GDP Growth (cumulative) | -1.1433*** | -0.8271** | -0.1197 | 0.8409* | -0.9962** | -1.0714** |
| MPK Proxy (level at t+h) | -0.0047** | 0.0051* | 0.0009 | 0.0053* | -0.0098*** | -0.0102*** |

## B: Direct Demographics (Z₁ coefficient by horizon)

| Outcome | h=0 | h=1 | h=2 | h=3 | h=4 | h=5 |
|---------|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|
| Capital Deepening (cumulative Δlog K/L) | -0.0405 | -0.1579 | -0.2569* | -0.1384 | 0.0565 | -0.1640 |
| Investment/GDP (level at t+h) | 38.5122*** | 17.0792 | 29.3549** | 35.2177** | 38.4726*** | 36.0257*** |
| TFP Growth (cumulative Δlog TFP) | -0.1104 | -0.1214 | -0.0323 | 0.4486 | 0.9631** | 1.2035** |
| GDP Growth (cumulative) | -7.0329 | -2.5759 | 7.2019 | 7.7848 | 15.0892 | -35.4647 |
| MPK Proxy (level at t+h) | -0.3586*** | -0.2226 | -0.1841 | 0.0064 | 0.0607 | -0.0086 |

## C: OECD Subsample — Reduced Form

| Outcome | h=0 | h=1 | h=2 | h=3 | h=4 | h=5 |
|---------|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|
| Capital Deepening (cumulative Δlog K/L) | 0.0064*** | -0.0060* | -0.0157*** | -0.0138*** | -0.0078* | -0.0082 |
| Investment/GDP (level at t+h) | -1.6546*** | 0.1071 | 0.6917** | 0.2045 | -0.3329 | -0.5454 |
| TFP Growth (cumulative Δlog TFP) | -0.0057** | -0.0049 | 0.0091 | 0.0035 | 0.0014 | 0.0024 |
| GDP Growth (cumulative) | -1.2573*** | 0.4642 | 1.7783** | 1.8344** | 0.0104 | 0.3055 |
| MPK Proxy (level at t+h) | -0.0019*** | 0.0052*** | 0.0031*** | 0.0010 | -0.0027** | -0.0018 |

## Impulse Response Plots

```
A: Predicted Demo Inflows → Capital Deepening (cumulative Δlog K/L)
===================================================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0     0.00171  0.00185 0.3568   2995                                 ------------·-------------   
  1    -0.00362  0.00239 0.1300   2836           ----------------·----------------                  
  2  -0.00584**  0.00274 0.0330   2678  ------------------*------------------ |                     
  3    -0.00445  0.00296 0.1331   2520     -------------------·--------------------                 
  4    -0.00004  0.00317 0.9896   2362                  ---------------------·----------------------
  5    -0.00072  0.00336 0.8301   2204               ----------------------·----------------------  
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -0.0112                    0.0062
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

A: Predicted Demo Inflows → Investment/GDP (level at t+h)
=========================================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0  -1.04572***  0.26860 0.0001   2590  ------------*-------------           |                      
  1  -0.53381**  0.26804 0.0465   2596              -------------*------------                      
  2     0.16983  0.26798 0.5263   2601                               -------------·------------     
  3     0.00377  0.26526 0.9886   2605                           -------------·------------         
  4     0.35595  0.26186 0.1742   2608                                    ------------·-------------
  5     0.21888  0.25944 0.3989   2604                                -------------·------------    
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -1.5722                    0.8692
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

A: Predicted Demo Inflows → TFP Growth (cumulative Δlog TFP)
============================================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0   -0.00645*  0.00350 0.0658   2084                ------o-----                                  
  1     0.00372  0.00681 0.5846   1975                   ----------·----------                      
  2   0.01752**  0.00837 0.0365   1865                          |------------*------------          
  3  0.02766***  0.00942 0.0034   1755                          |      --------------*--------------
  4     0.00535  0.00930 0.5652   1645                 -------------·--------------                 
  5   -0.01563*  0.00908 0.0856   1535  -------------o-------------                                 
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -0.0334                    0.0461
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

A: Predicted Demo Inflows → GDP Growth (cumulative)
===================================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0  -1.14326***  0.21185 0.0000   3014         ------*-------          |                            
  1  -0.82713**  0.38716 0.0327   3013        ------------*------------|                            
  2    -0.11971  0.42894 0.7802   3012                  -------------·--------------                
  3    0.84093*  0.45754 0.0662   3011                                --------------o---------------
  4  -0.99617**  0.47597 0.0364   3010   --------------*---------------|                            
  5  -1.07143**  0.48042 0.0258   3009  --------------*--------------- |                            
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -2.0131                    1.7377
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

A: Predicted Demo Inflows → MPK Proxy (level at t+h)
====================================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0  -0.00467**  0.00228 0.0409   2369                 ----------*---------|                        
  1    0.00509*  0.00277 0.0657   2245                                    ------------o-----------  
  2     0.00090  0.00283 0.7502   2120                           ------------·------------          
  3    0.00533*  0.00295 0.0707   1995                                    ------------o-------------
  4  -0.00982***  0.00305 0.0013   1870   -------------*------------        |                        
  5  -0.01020***  0.00317 0.0013   1745  -------------*-------------        |                        
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -0.0164                    0.0111
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

B: Z₁ → Capital Deepening (cumulative Δlog K/L)
===============================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0    -0.04055  0.05398 0.4526   4146                           ------·------                      
  1    -0.15792  0.11434 0.1673   3986             -------------·-------------                      
  2   -0.25687*  0.15442 0.0963   3825   -----------------o------------------                       
  3    -0.13836  0.18163 0.4462   3664       --------------------·--------------------              
  4     0.05651  0.20323 0.7810   3503                ----------------------·-----------------------
  5    -0.16396  0.21983 0.4558   3342  ------------------------·------------------------           
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -0.5948                    0.4548
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

B: Z₂ → Capital Deepening (cumulative Δlog K/L)
===============================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0     0.00952  0.00806 0.2374   4146              -----·------                                    
  1    0.03114*  0.01718 0.0700   3986               ------------o------------                      
  2   0.05144**  0.02337 0.0278   3825                | ----------------*----------------           
  3     0.03938  0.02767 0.1547   3664           -------------------·-------------------            
  4     0.01939  0.03118 0.5340   3503  ---------------------·---------------------                 
  5    0.06002*  0.03388 0.0766   3342              -----------------------o------------------------
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -0.0417                    0.1264
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

B: Z₃ → Capital Deepening (cumulative Δlog K/L)
===============================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0    -0.00048  0.00033 0.1387   4146                                            -----·-----       
  1  -0.00148**  0.00070 0.0355   3986                              -----------*-----------|        
  2  -0.00245**  0.00096 0.0108   3825                 ----------------*---------------    |        
  3   -0.00215*  0.00114 0.0604   3664                 ------------------o-------------------       
  4    -0.00163  0.00130 0.2079   3503                   ---------------------·---------------------
  5  -0.00350**  0.00142 0.0134   3342  ----------------------*-----------------------     |        
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -0.0063                    0.0009
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

B: Z₁ → Investment/GDP (level at t+h)
=====================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0  38.51224*** 13.91950 0.0057   3552         |        ---------------------*----------------------
  1    17.07924 13.63629 0.2105   3561  --------------------·---------------------                  
  2  29.35487** 13.44868 0.0291   3570         | ---------------------*---------------------        
  3  35.21773** 13.68354 0.0101   3578         |      ---------------------*---------------------   
  4  38.47262*** 13.29472 0.0038   3584         |         --------------------*--------------------- 
  5  36.02570*** 13.66409 0.0084   3584         |      ---------------------*---------------------   
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -9.6479                    65.7944
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

B: Z₂ → Investment/GDP (level at t+h)
=====================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0  -4.41675**  2.08214 0.0340   3552   ----------------------*---------------------- |            
  1    -1.84065  2.03952 0.3669   3561                 ----------------------·----------------------
  2   -3.46575*  2.01142 0.0850   3570        ----------------------o---------------------          
  3  -4.31004**  2.04709 0.0353   3578   ----------------------*---------------------- |            
  4  -4.78686**  1.98951 0.0162   3584  ---------------------*---------------------    |            
  5  -4.42614**  2.04706 0.0307   3584   ----------------------*---------------------- |            
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -8.6863                    2.1568
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

B: Z₃ → Investment/GDP (level at t+h)
=====================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0    0.14059*  0.08466 0.0969   3552             -----------------------o----------------------   
  1     0.05180  0.08292 0.5322   3561  ----------------------·----------------------               
  2     0.11256  0.08179 0.1688   3570          ----------------------·----------------------       
  3    0.14503*  0.08327 0.0817   3578              ----------------------o----------------------   
  4   0.16525**  0.08094 0.0413   3584                 ----------------------*----------------------
  5    0.15086*  0.08336 0.0704   3584               ----------------------o----------------------  
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -0.1107                    0.3239
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

B: Z₁ → TFP Growth (cumulative Δlog TFP)
========================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0    -0.11037  0.07910 0.1630   2888        ----·---                                              
  1    -0.12139  0.19036 0.5237   2778    -------·--------                                          
  2    -0.03225  0.28902 0.9112   2667  -----------·------------                                    
  3     0.44858  0.36843 0.2235   2556        ---------------·---------------                       
  4   0.96312**  0.46025 0.0365   2445              |-------------------*-------------------        
  5   1.20347**  0.52101 0.0210   2334              |   ---------------------*----------------------
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -0.5987                    2.2246
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

B: Z₂ → TFP Growth (cumulative Δlog TFP)
========================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0     0.01557  0.01169 0.1831   2888                                               ---·---        
  1     0.01846  0.02819 0.5126   2778                                           --------·-------   
  2     0.00808  0.04291 0.8506   2667                                      -----------·------------
  3    -0.06150  0.05485 0.2622   2556                          --------------·--------------       
  4  -0.14932**  0.06891 0.0303   2445          ------------------*------------------ |             
  5  -0.19679**  0.07840 0.0121   2334  --------------------*--------------------     |             
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -0.3505                    0.0922
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

B: Z₃ → TFP Growth (cumulative Δlog TFP)
========================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0    -0.00060  0.00047 0.2001   2888         ---·---                                              
  1    -0.00075  0.00114 0.5100   2778    -------·-------                                           
  2    -0.00041  0.00173 0.8153   2667  ----------·-----------                                      
  3     0.00236  0.00222 0.2887   2556       --------------·--------------                          
  4   0.00624**  0.00280 0.0260   2445              | -----------------*------------------          
  5  0.00845***  0.00320 0.0084   2334              |      --------------------*--------------------
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -0.0038                    0.0147
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

B: Z₁ → GDP Growth (cumulative)
===============================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0    -7.03295  5.59661 0.2090   4239                             ----·----                        
  1    -2.57587 14.04285 0.8545   4238                         ----------·---------                 
  2     7.20189 21.31613 0.7355   4237                        --------------·--------------         
  3     7.78482 26.02902 0.7649   4236                     -----------------·------------------     
  4    15.08923 29.78675 0.6125   4235                     --------------------·--------------------
  5   -35.46472 32.86608 0.2806   4234  ---------------------·----------------------                
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                            -99.8822                    73.4713
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

B: Z₂ → GDP Growth (cumulative)
===============================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0     1.18380  0.83557 0.1566   4239                             ----·----                        
  1     0.18297  2.09701 0.9305   4238                     ----------·---------                     
  2    -1.66933  3.19347 0.6012   4237            --------------·---------------                    
  3    -1.72841  3.91087 0.6585   4236         -----------------·------------------                 
  4    -3.75756  4.48610 0.4023   4235  --------------------·--------------------                   
  5     3.45213  4.96131 0.4866   4234                ----------------------·-----------------------
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                            -12.5503                    13.1763
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

B: Z₃ → GDP Growth (cumulative)
===============================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0    -0.05427  0.03394 0.1100   4239                       ----·----                              
  1    -0.00670  0.08518 0.9373   4238                    ---------·----------                      
  2     0.07658  0.13005 0.5560   4237                    --------------·---------------            
  3     0.07454  0.15970 0.6407   4236                ------------------·------------------         
  4     0.18456  0.18366 0.3150   4235                    --------------------·---------------------
  5    -0.10440  0.20367 0.6082   4234  ----------------------·----------------------               
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -0.5036                    0.5445
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

B: Z₁ → MPK Proxy (level at t+h)
================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0  -0.35859***  0.13576 0.0083   3321  ---------------*---------------    |                        
  1    -0.22261  0.15825 0.1596   3196       ------------------·------------------                  
  2    -0.18411  0.16319 0.2593   3070        -------------------·------------------                
  3     0.00644  0.16872 0.9696   2944                   -------------------·-------------------    
  4     0.06066  0.17312 0.7261   2818                     --------------------·--------------------
  5    -0.00861  0.18000 0.9619   2692                 --------------------·--------------------    
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -0.6247                    0.4000
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

B: Z₂ → MPK Proxy (level at t+h)
================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0     0.03362  0.02052 0.1014   3321                       -----------------·------------------   
  1     0.03370  0.02389 0.1584   3196                    --------------------·---------------------
  2     0.03078  0.02470 0.2129   3070                  ---------------------·--------------------- 
  3     0.00391  0.02560 0.8787   2944      ---------------------·----------------------            
  4    -0.00413  0.02636 0.8756   2818  ----------------------·----------------------               
  5    -0.00019  0.02746 0.9943   2692  ------------------------·-----------------------            
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -0.0558                    0.0805
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

B: Z₃ → MPK Proxy (level at t+h)
================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0    -0.00116  0.00085 0.1715   3321        ------------------·-----------------                  
  1    -0.00152  0.00098 0.1207   3196  --------------------·--------------------                   
  2    -0.00148  0.00102 0.1450   3070  --------------------·---------------------                  
  3    -0.00044  0.00106 0.6756   2944            ---------------------·----------------------      
  4    -0.00010  0.00109 0.9272   2818               ----------------------·----------------------  
  5    -0.00010  0.00114 0.9329   2692              -----------------------·------------------------
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -0.0035                    0.0021
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

C (OECD): Predicted Demo Inflows → Capital Deepening (cumulative Δlog K/L)
==========================================================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0  0.00636***  0.00214 0.0030    703                                          |   -------*--------
  1   -0.00596*  0.00337 0.0769    666                    ------------o-----------                  
  2  -0.01566***  0.00397 0.0001    629  -------------*--------------            |                   
  3  -0.01382***  0.00434 0.0015    592   ---------------*---------------        |                   
  4   -0.00775*  0.00465 0.0959    555             ----------------o----------------                
  5    -0.00817  0.00497 0.1011    518           -----------------·-----------------                
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -0.0234                    0.0105
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

C (OECD): Predicted Demo Inflows → Investment/GDP (level at t+h)
================================================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0  -1.65463***  0.30187 0.0000    703  ---------*----------                |                       
  1     0.10712  0.31194 0.7314    703                              ----------·----------           
  2   0.69170**  0.34238 0.0437    703                                      |-----------*-----------
  3     0.20450  0.34535 0.5539    703                              ------------·-----------        
  4    -0.33285  0.34401 0.3336    703                      -----------·-----------                 
  5    -0.54542  0.34358 0.1129    703                  -----------·-----------                     
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -2.2463                    1.3628
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

C (OECD): Predicted Demo Inflows → TFP Growth (cumulative Δlog TFP)
===================================================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0  -0.00574**  0.00250 0.0218    703        --------*--------|                                    
  1    -0.00495  0.00493 0.3161    666  ---------------·----------------                            
  2     0.00914  0.00628 0.1460    629                    --------------------·---------------------
  3     0.00352  0.00725 0.6277    592        -----------------------·-----------------------       
  4     0.00139  0.00779 0.8584    555   -------------------------·-------------------------        
  5     0.00244  0.00765 0.7504    518     ------------------------·-------------------------       
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -0.0146                    0.0214
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

C (OECD): Predicted Demo Inflows → GDP Growth (cumulative)
==========================================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0  -1.25728***  0.30303 0.0000    703  ------*-------       |                                      
  1     0.46419  0.60236 0.4412    703              --------------·-------------                    
  2   1.77830**  0.71798 0.0135    703                       |   ----------------*----------------  
  3   1.83443**  0.75098 0.0148    703                       |   -----------------*-----------------
  4     0.01042  0.80171 0.9896    703     ------------------·------------------                    
  5     0.30547  0.81055 0.7064    703        ------------------·------------------                 
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -1.8512                    3.3064
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

C (OECD): Predicted Demo Inflows → MPK Proxy (level at t+h)
===========================================================

  h        coef       SE      p      N  Plot
  -        ----       --    ---    ---  ------------------------------------------------------------
  0  -0.00192***  0.00071 0.0074    703         -------*------- |                                    
  1  0.00521***  0.00107 0.0000    666                         |              ----------*-----------
  2  0.00313***  0.00110 0.0045    629                         |    ----------*-----------          
  3     0.00103  0.00114 0.3665    592                   -----------·-----------                    
  4  -0.00266**  0.00114 0.0200    555  ----------*----------- |                                    
  5    -0.00184  0.00118 0.1196    518     -----------·-----------                                  
                                         ------------------------------------------------------------
                             -0.0049                    0.0073
  (* p<0.05, o p<0.1, · p>0.1, | = zero)

```

*p<0.1, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01. Controls: fiscal_bal_gdp, nfa_gdp_lag, log_rel_opw, kaopen. PanelGLS with Cochrane-Orcutt AR(1) correction.*
